Others tell you what will happen.
We show you how sure
you can be.
Calibrated probabilities for football matches. Every number comes from a model trained only on data known before that match — and we measure and publish how accurate we are.
Let us say this first
8,434 predictions measured: our model does not beat the bookmakers' closing line in any league. The gap ranges from 0.0153 — 0.0449 log-loss across leagues.
We put this on the front page instead of hiding it, because claiming otherwise would be a lie. Full measurement here.
What this is not
- Accepts no bets and handles no money.
- Links to no bookmaker.
- Sells no tips or predictions.
- Offers no guarantee of profit — and cannot.
What it is for
- Calibrated probability. When we say 60%, do about 60% of such matches actually end that way — we measure it.
- Transparency. We publish our own errors too.
- Season simulation. Title and relegation odds, with their uncertainty shown.
- Decision discipline. Record your own calls, measure your accuracy over time.