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Alverca – Tondela

Primeira Liga · September 12, 2025

Alverca 1–0 Tondela

final score

What we said before the match

1 · Alverca 41% X · 24% 2 · Tondela 35%
Over 2.5 goals57%
Both teams to score60%
Expected goals1.56 – 1.42
These probabilities were produced before the match, using only data known up to that date, and were never changed afterwards. Model dc_timeweighted 1.0.0, training cutoff September 6, 2025.
This is a statistical estimate, not advice. No outcome is guaranteed.

A single match tells you nothing about whether a model is good — probability claims can only be judged over thousands of matches. Our aggregate accuracy is here.