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Arouca – Alverca

Primeira Liga · December 14, 2025

Arouca 1–0 Alverca

final score

What we said before the match

1 · Arouca 43% X · 25% 2 · Alverca 32%
Over 2.5 goals50%
Both teams to score54%
Expected goals1.46 – 1.23
These probabilities were produced before the match, using only data known up to that date, and were never changed afterwards. Model dc_timeweighted 1.0.0, training cutoff December 13, 2025.
This is a statistical estimate, not advice. No outcome is guaranteed.

A single match tells you nothing about whether a model is good — probability claims can only be judged over thousands of matches. Our aggregate accuracy is here.