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Arouca – Porto

Primeira Liga · September 29, 2025

Arouca 0–4 Porto

final score

What we said before the match

1 · Arouca 13% X · 19% 2 · Porto 68%
Over 2.5 goals53%
Both teams to score45%
Expected goals0.75 – 2.05
These probabilities were produced before the match, using only data known up to that date, and were never changed afterwards. Model dc_timeweighted 1.0.0, training cutoff September 27, 2025.
This is a statistical estimate, not advice. No outcome is guaranteed.

A single match tells you nothing about whether a model is good — probability claims can only be judged over thousands of matches. Our aggregate accuracy is here.