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Arsenal – Man City

Premier League · September 21, 2025

Arsenal 1–1 Man City

final score

What we said before the match

1 · Arsenal 41% X · 28% 2 · Man City 31%
Over 2.5 goals42%
Both teams to score48%
Expected goals1.28 – 1.08
These probabilities were produced before the match, using only data known up to that date, and were never changed afterwards. Model dc_timeweighted 1.0.0, training cutoff September 20, 2025.
This is a statistical estimate, not advice. No outcome is guaranteed.

A single match tells you nothing about whether a model is good — probability claims can only be judged over thousands of matches. Our aggregate accuracy is here.