Aston Villa – Brighton
Premier League · February 11, 2026
Aston Villa
1–0
Brighton
final score
What we said before the match
1 · Aston Villa 44%
X · 26%
2 · Brighton 30%
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% |
| Both teams to score | 59% |
| Expected goals | 1.61 – 1.29 |
These probabilities were produced before the match, using only data known up to that date, and were never changed afterwards. Model
dc_timeweighted 1.0.0, training cutoff
February 7, 2026.This is a statistical estimate, not advice. No outcome is guaranteed.
A single match tells you nothing about whether a model is good — probability claims can only be judged over thousands of matches. Our aggregate accuracy is here.