Aston Villa – Burnley
Premier League · October 5, 2025
Aston Villa
2–1
Burnley
final score
What we said before the match
1 · Aston Villa 63%
X · 21%
2 · Burnley 16%
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% |
| Both teams to score | 52% |
| Expected goals | 2.04 – 0.91 |
These probabilities were produced before the match, using only data known up to that date, and were never changed afterwards. Model
dc_timeweighted 1.0.0, training cutoff
October 4, 2025.This is a statistical estimate, not advice. No outcome is guaranteed.
A single match tells you nothing about whether a model is good — probability claims can only be judged over thousands of matches. Our aggregate accuracy is here.