Aston Villa – Chelsea
Premier League · March 4, 2026
Aston Villa
1–4
Chelsea
final score
What we said before the match
1 · Aston Villa 37%
X · 27%
2 · Chelsea 36%
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% |
| Both teams to score | 59% |
| Expected goals | 1.43 – 1.41 |
These probabilities were produced before the match, using only data known up to that date, and were never changed afterwards. Model
dc_timeweighted 1.0.0, training cutoff
February 27, 2026.This is a statistical estimate, not advice. No outcome is guaranteed.
A single match tells you nothing about whether a model is good — probability claims can only be judged over thousands of matches. Our aggregate accuracy is here.