Certor

Aston Villa – Everton

Premier League · September 14, 2024

Aston Villa 3–2 Everton

final score

What we said before the match

1 · Aston Villa 55% X · 24% 2 · Everton 21%
Over 2.5 goals51%
Both teams to score52%
Expected goals1.74 – 0.99
These probabilities were produced before the match, using only data known up to that date, and were never changed afterwards. Model dc_timeweighted 1.0.0, training cutoff September 14, 2024.
This is a statistical estimate, not advice. No outcome is guaranteed.

A single match tells you nothing about whether a model is good — probability claims can only be judged over thousands of matches. Our aggregate accuracy is here.