Certor

Aston Villa – Man United

Premier League · February 11, 2024

Aston Villa 1–2 Man United

final score

What we said before the match

1 · Aston Villa 46% X · 24% 2 · Man United 30%
Over 2.5 goals55%
Both teams to score57%
Expected goals1.62 – 1.25
These probabilities were produced before the match, using only data known up to that date, and were never changed afterwards. Model dc_timeweighted 1.0.0, training cutoff February 10, 2024.
This is a statistical estimate, not advice. No outcome is guaranteed.

A single match tells you nothing about whether a model is good — probability claims can only be judged over thousands of matches. Our aggregate accuracy is here.