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Aston Villa – Nott'm Forest

Premier League · September 12, 2026

Aston Villa 1–2 Nott'm Forest

final score

What we said before the match

1 · Aston Villa 43% X · 29% 2 · Nott'm Forest 28%
Over 2.5 goals47%
Both teams to score53%
Expected goals1.44 – 1.13
These probabilities were produced before the match, using only data known up to that date, and were never changed afterwards. Model dc_timeweighted 1.0.0, training cutoff September 12, 2026.
This is a statistical estimate, not advice. No outcome is guaranteed.

A single match tells you nothing about whether a model is good — probability claims can only be judged over thousands of matches. Our aggregate accuracy is here.