Certor

Ath Madrid – Real Madrid

La Liga · September 27, 2025

Ath Madrid 5–2 Real Madrid

final score

What we said before the match

1 · Ath Madrid 36% X · 24% 2 · Real Madrid 40%
Over 2.5 goals58%
Both teams to score61%
Expected goals1.47 – 1.56
These probabilities were produced before the match, using only data known up to that date, and were never changed afterwards. Model dc_timeweighted 1.0.0, training cutoff September 26, 2025.
This is a statistical estimate, not advice. No outcome is guaranteed.

A single match tells you nothing about whether a model is good — probability claims can only be judged over thousands of matches. Our aggregate accuracy is here.