Certor

Augsburg – Mainz

Bundesliga · September 20, 2025

Augsburg 1–4 Mainz

final score

What we said before the match

1 · Augsburg 32% X · 30% 2 · Mainz 38%
Over 2.5 goals46%
Both teams to score53%
Expected goals1.20 – 1.33
These probabilities were produced before the match, using only data known up to that date, and were never changed afterwards. Model dc_timeweighted 1.0.0, training cutoff September 19, 2025.
This is a statistical estimate, not advice. No outcome is guaranteed.

A single match tells you nothing about whether a model is good — probability claims can only be judged over thousands of matches. Our aggregate accuracy is here.