Certor

AZ Alkmaar – Heracles

Eredivisie · March 15, 2026

AZ Alkmaar 4–0 Heracles

final score

What we said before the match

1 · AZ Alkmaar 73% X · 16% 2 · Heracles 11%
Over 2.5 goals70%
Both teams to score57%
Expected goals2.65 – 0.94
These probabilities were produced before the match, using only data known up to that date, and were never changed afterwards. Model dc_timeweighted 1.0.0, training cutoff March 14, 2026.
This is a statistical estimate, not advice. No outcome is guaranteed.

A single match tells you nothing about whether a model is good — probability claims can only be judged over thousands of matches. Our aggregate accuracy is here.