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Chelsea – Burnley

Premier League · February 21, 2026

Chelsea 1–1 Burnley

final score

What we said before the match

1 · Chelsea 74% X · 17% 2 · Burnley 9%
Over 2.5 goals66%
Both teams to score53%
Expected goals2.56 – 0.84
These probabilities were produced before the match, using only data known up to that date, and were never changed afterwards. Model dc_timeweighted 1.0.0, training cutoff February 18, 2026.
This is a statistical estimate, not advice. No outcome is guaranteed.

A single match tells you nothing about whether a model is good — probability claims can only be judged over thousands of matches. Our aggregate accuracy is here.