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Dortmund – Bayern Munich

Bundesliga · February 28, 2026

Dortmund 2–3 Bayern Munich

final score

What we said before the match

1 · Dortmund 24% X · 21% 2 · Bayern Munich 55%
Over 2.5 goals74%
Both teams to score71%
Expected goals1.51 – 2.32
These probabilities were produced before the match, using only data known up to that date, and were never changed afterwards. Model dc_timeweighted 1.0.0, training cutoff February 27, 2026.
This is a statistical estimate, not advice. No outcome is guaranteed.

A single match tells you nothing about whether a model is good — probability claims can only be judged over thousands of matches. Our aggregate accuracy is here.