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Estrela – Casa Pia

Primeira Liga · March 20, 2026

Estrela 4–0 Casa Pia

final score

What we said before the match

1 · Estrela 35% X · 28% 2 · Casa Pia 37%
Over 2.5 goals39%
Both teams to score45%
Expected goals1.09 – 1.15
These probabilities were produced before the match, using only data known up to that date, and were never changed afterwards. Model dc_timeweighted 1.0.0, training cutoff March 15, 2026.
This is a statistical estimate, not advice. No outcome is guaranteed.

A single match tells you nothing about whether a model is good — probability claims can only be judged over thousands of matches. Our aggregate accuracy is here.