Certor

FC Koln – Mainz

Bundesliga · January 17, 2026

FC Koln 2–1 Mainz

final score

What we said before the match

1 · FC Koln 39% X · 29% 2 · Mainz 32%
Over 2.5 goals49%
Both teams to score55%
Expected goals1.39 – 1.23
These probabilities were produced before the match, using only data known up to that date, and were never changed afterwards. Model dc_timeweighted 1.0.0, training cutoff January 16, 2026.
This is a statistical estimate, not advice. No outcome is guaranteed.

A single match tells you nothing about whether a model is good — probability claims can only be judged over thousands of matches. Our aggregate accuracy is here.