Certor

Freiburg – Dortmund

Bundesliga · September 16, 2023

Freiburg 2–4 Dortmund

final score

What we said before the match

1 · Freiburg 30% X · 25% 2 · Dortmund 45%
Over 2.5 goals65%
Both teams to score67%
Expected goals1.49 – 1.87
These probabilities were produced before the match, using only data known up to that date, and were never changed afterwards. Model dc_timeweighted 1.0.0, training cutoff September 15, 2023.
This is a statistical estimate, not advice. No outcome is guaranteed.

A single match tells you nothing about whether a model is good — probability claims can only be judged over thousands of matches. Our aggregate accuracy is here.