Certor

Genoa – Fiorentina

Serie A · October 10, 2026

Genoa 2–1 Fiorentina

final score

What we said before the match

1 · Genoa 30% X · 29% 2 · Fiorentina 41%
Over 2.5 goals42%
Both teams to score48%
Expected goals1.06 – 1.29
These probabilities were produced before the match, using only data known up to that date, and were never changed afterwards. Model dc_timeweighted 1.0.0, training cutoff October 10, 2026.
This is a statistical estimate, not advice. No outcome is guaranteed.

A single match tells you nothing about whether a model is good — probability claims can only be judged over thousands of matches. Our aggregate accuracy is here.