Certor

Lens – Toulouse

Ligue 1 · April 17, 2026

Lens 3–2 Toulouse

final score

What we said before the match

1 · Lens 52% X · 26% 2 · Toulouse 22%
Over 2.5 goals48%
Both teams to score50%
Expected goals1.60 – 0.98
These probabilities were produced before the match, using only data known up to that date, and were never changed afterwards. Model dc_timeweighted 1.0.0, training cutoff April 17, 2026.
This is a statistical estimate, not advice. No outcome is guaranteed.

A single match tells you nothing about whether a model is good — probability claims can only be judged over thousands of matches. Our aggregate accuracy is here.