Certor

Mainz – Heidenheim

Bundesliga · January 13, 2026

Mainz 2–1 Heidenheim

final score

What we said before the match

1 · Mainz 52% X · 27% 2 · Heidenheim 21%
Over 2.5 goals49%
Both teams to score52%
Expected goals1.66 – 0.98
These probabilities were produced before the match, using only data known up to that date, and were never changed afterwards. Model dc_timeweighted 1.0.0, training cutoff January 9, 2026.
This is a statistical estimate, not advice. No outcome is guaranteed.

A single match tells you nothing about whether a model is good — probability claims can only be judged over thousands of matches. Our aggregate accuracy is here.