Certor

Mainz – Leverkusen

Bundesliga · October 18, 2025

Mainz 3–4 Leverkusen

final score

What we said before the match

1 · Mainz 25% X · 26% 2 · Leverkusen 49%
Over 2.5 goals56%
Both teams to score59%
Expected goals1.18 – 1.75
These probabilities were produced before the match, using only data known up to that date, and were never changed afterwards. Model dc_timeweighted 1.0.0, training cutoff October 17, 2025.
This is a statistical estimate, not advice. No outcome is guaranteed.

A single match tells you nothing about whether a model is good — probability claims can only be judged over thousands of matches. Our aggregate accuracy is here.