Certor

Mainz – St Pauli

Bundesliga · December 21, 2025

Mainz 0–0 St Pauli

final score

What we said before the match

1 · Mainz 49% X · 31% 2 · St Pauli 20%
Over 2.5 goals35%
Both teams to score41%
Expected goals1.33 – 0.77
These probabilities were produced before the match, using only data known up to that date, and were never changed afterwards. Model dc_timeweighted 1.0.0, training cutoff December 19, 2025.
This is a statistical estimate, not advice. No outcome is guaranteed.

A single match tells you nothing about whether a model is good — probability claims can only be judged over thousands of matches. Our aggregate accuracy is here.