Certor

Mainz – Union Berlin

Bundesliga · August 24, 2024

Mainz 1–1 Union Berlin

final score

What we said before the match

1 · Mainz 43% X · 30% 2 · Union Berlin 27%
Over 2.5 goals44%
Both teams to score51%
Expected goals1.40 – 1.06
These probabilities were produced before the match, using only data known up to that date, and were never changed afterwards. Model dc_timeweighted 1.0.0, training cutoff August 23, 2024.
This is a statistical estimate, not advice. No outcome is guaranteed.

A single match tells you nothing about whether a model is good — probability claims can only be judged over thousands of matches. Our aggregate accuracy is here.