Certor

Mainz – Werder Bremen

Bundesliga · October 24, 2026

Mainz 2–3 Werder Bremen

final score

What we said before the match

1 · Mainz 49% X · 26% 2 · Werder Bremen 25%
Over 2.5 goals55%
Both teams to score58%
Expected goals1.72 – 1.18
These probabilities were produced before the match, using only data known up to that date, and were never changed afterwards. Model dc_timeweighted 1.0.0, training cutoff October 24, 2026.
This is a statistical estimate, not advice. No outcome is guaranteed.

A single match tells you nothing about whether a model is good — probability claims can only be judged over thousands of matches. Our aggregate accuracy is here.