Man City – Arsenal
Premier League · April 19, 2026
Man City
2–1
Arsenal
final score
What we said before the match
1 · Man City 36%
X · 31%
2 · Arsenal 33%
| Over 2.5 goals | 41% |
| Both teams to score | 49% |
| Expected goals | 1.21 – 1.13 |
These probabilities were produced before the match, using only data known up to that date, and were never changed afterwards. Model
dc_timeweighted 1.0.0, training cutoff
April 18, 2026.This is a statistical estimate, not advice. No outcome is guaranteed.
A single match tells you nothing about whether a model is good — probability claims can only be judged over thousands of matches. Our aggregate accuracy is here.