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Man City – Aston Villa

Premier League · April 22, 2025

Man City 2–1 Aston Villa

final score

What we said before the match

1 · Man City 64% X · 20% 2 · Aston Villa 16%
Over 2.5 goals62%
Both teams to score56%
Expected goals2.18 – 1.01
These probabilities were produced before the match, using only data known up to that date, and were never changed afterwards. Model dc_timeweighted 1.0.0, training cutoff April 19, 2025.
This is a statistical estimate, not advice. No outcome is guaranteed.

A single match tells you nothing about whether a model is good — probability claims can only be judged over thousands of matches. Our aggregate accuracy is here.