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Man City – Burnley

Premier League · September 27, 2025

Man City 5–1 Burnley

final score

What we said before the match

1 · Man City 80% X · 13% 2 · Burnley 7%
Over 2.5 goals66%
Both teams to score46%
Expected goals2.75 – 0.68
These probabilities were produced before the match, using only data known up to that date, and were never changed afterwards. Model dc_timeweighted 1.0.0, training cutoff September 27, 2025.
This is a statistical estimate, not advice. No outcome is guaranteed.

A single match tells you nothing about whether a model is good — probability claims can only be judged over thousands of matches. Our aggregate accuracy is here.