Certor

Man City – Newcastle

Premier League · August 19, 2023

Man City 1–0 Newcastle

final score

What we said before the match

1 · Man City 67% X · 19% 2 · Newcastle 14%
Over 2.5 goals56%
Both teams to score49%
Expected goals2.10 – 0.82
These probabilities were produced before the match, using only data known up to that date, and were never changed afterwards. Model dc_timeweighted 1.0.0, training cutoff August 18, 2023.
This is a statistical estimate, not advice. No outcome is guaranteed.

A single match tells you nothing about whether a model is good — probability claims can only be judged over thousands of matches. Our aggregate accuracy is here.