Certor

Metz – Toulouse

Ligue 1 · March 15, 2026

Metz 3–4 Toulouse

final score

What we said before the match

1 · Metz 22% X · 26% 2 · Toulouse 52%
Over 2.5 goals46%
Both teams to score48%
Expected goals0.93 – 1.57
These probabilities were produced before the match, using only data known up to that date, and were never changed afterwards. Model dc_timeweighted 1.0.0, training cutoff March 13, 2026.
This is a statistical estimate, not advice. No outcome is guaranteed.

A single match tells you nothing about whether a model is good — probability claims can only be judged over thousands of matches. Our aggregate accuracy is here.