Certor

Milan – Genoa

Serie A · January 8, 2026

Milan 1–1 Genoa

final score

What we said before the match

1 · Milan 62% X · 23% 2 · Genoa 15%
Over 2.5 goals50%
Both teams to score48%
Expected goals1.86 – 0.81
These probabilities were produced before the match, using only data known up to that date, and were never changed afterwards. Model dc_timeweighted 1.0.0, training cutoff January 3, 2026.
This is a statistical estimate, not advice. No outcome is guaranteed.

A single match tells you nothing about whether a model is good — probability claims can only be judged over thousands of matches. Our aggregate accuracy is here.