Certor

Napoli – Milan

Serie A · April 6, 2026

Napoli 1–0 Milan

final score

What we said before the match

1 · Napoli 47% X · 27% 2 · Milan 26%
Over 2.5 goals48%
Both teams to score52%
Expected goals1.50 – 1.07
These probabilities were produced before the match, using only data known up to that date, and were never changed afterwards. Model dc_timeweighted 1.0.0, training cutoff April 4, 2026.
This is a statistical estimate, not advice. No outcome is guaranteed.

A single match tells you nothing about whether a model is good — probability claims can only be judged over thousands of matches. Our aggregate accuracy is here.