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Newcastle – Arsenal

Premier League · November 4, 2023

Newcastle 1–0 Arsenal

final score

What we said before the match

1 · Newcastle 40% X · 24% 2 · Arsenal 36%
Over 2.5 goals54%
Both teams to score57%
Expected goals1.46 – 1.38
These probabilities were produced before the match, using only data known up to that date, and were never changed afterwards. Model dc_timeweighted 1.0.0, training cutoff November 4, 2023.
This is a statistical estimate, not advice. No outcome is guaranteed.

A single match tells you nothing about whether a model is good — probability claims can only be judged over thousands of matches. Our aggregate accuracy is here.