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Newcastle – Aston Villa

Premier League · August 12, 2023

Newcastle 5–1 Aston Villa

final score

What we said before the match

1 · Newcastle 50% X · 25% 2 · Aston Villa 25%
Over 2.5 goals45%
Both teams to score48%
Expected goals1.50 – 0.99
These probabilities were produced before the match, using only data known up to that date, and were never changed afterwards. Model dc_timeweighted 1.0.0, training cutoff August 11, 2023.
This is a statistical estimate, not advice. No outcome is guaranteed.

A single match tells you nothing about whether a model is good — probability claims can only be judged over thousands of matches. Our aggregate accuracy is here.