Certor

RB Leipzig – Bayern Munich

Bundesliga · January 17, 2026

RB Leipzig 1–5 Bayern Munich

final score

What we said before the match

1 · RB Leipzig 22% X · 23% 2 · Bayern Munich 55%
Over 2.5 goals69%
Both teams to score67%
Expected goals1.36 – 2.18
These probabilities were produced before the match, using only data known up to that date, and were never changed afterwards. Model dc_timeweighted 1.0.0, training cutoff January 16, 2026.
This is a statistical estimate, not advice. No outcome is guaranteed.

A single match tells you nothing about whether a model is good — probability claims can only be judged over thousands of matches. Our aggregate accuracy is here.