Certor

Rio Ave – Casa Pia

Primeira Liga · January 4, 2026

Rio Ave 3–1 Casa Pia

final score

What we said before the match

1 · Rio Ave 44% X · 27% 2 · Casa Pia 29%
Over 2.5 goals42%
Both teams to score47%
Expected goals1.34 – 1.03
These probabilities were produced before the match, using only data known up to that date, and were never changed afterwards. Model dc_timeweighted 1.0.0, training cutoff January 3, 2026.
This is a statistical estimate, not advice. No outcome is guaranteed.

A single match tells you nothing about whether a model is good — probability claims can only be judged over thousands of matches. Our aggregate accuracy is here.