Certor

St Pauli – Augsburg

Bundesliga · September 14, 2025

St Pauli 2–1 Augsburg

final score

What we said before the match

1 · St Pauli 40% X · 34% 2 · Augsburg 26%
Over 2.5 goals32%
Both teams to score40%
Expected goals1.12 – 0.85
These probabilities were produced before the match, using only data known up to that date, and were never changed afterwards. Model dc_timeweighted 1.0.0, training cutoff September 12, 2025.
This is a statistical estimate, not advice. No outcome is guaranteed.

A single match tells you nothing about whether a model is good — probability claims can only be judged over thousands of matches. Our aggregate accuracy is here.