Certor

Union Berlin – Leverkusen

Bundesliga · February 21, 2026

Union Berlin 1–0 Leverkusen

final score

What we said before the match

1 · Union Berlin 22% X · 27% 2 · Leverkusen 51%
Over 2.5 goals52%
Both teams to score55%
Expected goals1.05 – 1.71
These probabilities were produced before the match, using only data known up to that date, and were never changed afterwards. Model dc_timeweighted 1.0.0, training cutoff February 20, 2026.
This is a statistical estimate, not advice. No outcome is guaranteed.

A single match tells you nothing about whether a model is good — probability claims can only be judged over thousands of matches. Our aggregate accuracy is here.