Certor

Union Berlin – Mainz

Bundesliga · August 20, 2023

Union Berlin 4–1 Mainz

final score

What we said before the match

1 · Union Berlin 48% X · 29% 2 · Mainz 23%
Over 2.5 goals47%
Both teams to score52%
Expected goals1.53 – 1.02
These probabilities were produced before the match, using only data known up to that date, and were never changed afterwards. Model dc_timeweighted 1.0.0, training cutoff August 18, 2023.
This is a statistical estimate, not advice. No outcome is guaranteed.

A single match tells you nothing about whether a model is good — probability claims can only be judged over thousands of matches. Our aggregate accuracy is here.