Certor

Union Berlin – Mainz

Bundesliga · January 19, 2025

Union Berlin 2–1 Mainz

final score

What we said before the match

1 · Union Berlin 37% X · 31% 2 · Mainz 32%
Over 2.5 goals42%
Both teams to score49%
Expected goals1.23 – 1.12
These probabilities were produced before the match, using only data known up to that date, and were never changed afterwards. Model dc_timeweighted 1.0.0, training cutoff January 17, 2025.
This is a statistical estimate, not advice. No outcome is guaranteed.

A single match tells you nothing about whether a model is good — probability claims can only be judged over thousands of matches. Our aggregate accuracy is here.